I'm bumping this because I think it's important.
ChipMonkey, collisions between planes are not an issue; the simulator handles one flight at the time, and does so as if it were the only one. But winds can certainly affect the choice of optimal route substantially.
Besides winds, takeoffs and landings after the cutoff are not provided and must be predicted. Or at least congestion must be predicted. That too can be affected by the weather.
It bothers me that we still have no clear statement on which data we can use for the final evaluation. Let me sketch a few possible scenarios:
- Team A decides to rely on the latest RAP data available at each day's cutoff. They lead the public board and fully expect to place well in the final evaluation. Instead, when it's too late to change approach, Kaggle declares that RAP data can not be used this way. Team A spends the next month telling everybody who listens how they feel about Kaggle.
- Team B decides not to rely on RAP, since it's not guaranteed to be allowed. They spend most of their time creating a heroic weather predictor which does miracles with low quality METAR input. In the final evaluation, they are beaten by somebody who simply used the latest RAP data available at each day's cutoff. You can guess what Team B spends the next month doing.
- Team C has a bunch of ideas which it could try, but is unwilling to spend days coding and testing them if Kaggle is unwilling to spend a few minutes to spell out which data they will be able to rely on for the final evaluation. When somebody else eventually takes the big prize, they go "we could esily have done that too, but it's hard to shoot for a goal before the goal posts have been put down", and spend the next month doing you know what.
This is fun, but I think I'd better stop here...
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